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Briefing

You are interpreting for a Chinese delegation who are attending a talk about Australia’s population issues. The speaker is giving a presentation about the challenges associated with Australia’s ageing population.

Listen to Speech

Interpreting Speech #7 – Australia’s Ageing Population (English-into-Mandarin)

Transcript and reference translation

I was very pleased to see population growth in Australia being debated during the recent federal election. However it is surprising that another big challenge – population ageing – has hardly been mentioned.
我很高兴在最近的澳大利亚联邦大选之中看到了人口增长的辩论。但是，另外一个大的挑战——人口老龄化——几乎没有人提起，这很令人惊讶。

Birth rates have dropped dramatically over the past half-century. At the same time, medical breakthroughs mean we are living longer. The result is that the age distribution of our population has changed – and continues to change – dramatically.
在过去的50年中，出生率大幅度下降了。与此同时，医疗突破意味着我们更加长寿。结果是，我们的人口年龄分布有所改变，而且还在继续变化，变化很大。

It is projected that by 2050 there will be 35.9 million Australians. The proportion of Australians over 65 will also grow to more than 20% of the population. This is up from just over 10% now. This means that the proportion of Australians in the labour force will fall and economic growth will slow.
截止2050年澳大利亚人数预计会达到3590万。65岁以上的澳大利亚人比例也会增长到国家人口的20％以上。这个数据比现在的10％的数据高。这意味着澳大利亚劳动力的比例将会下降，以及经济增长将会变慢。

The result will be a growing fiscal gap: under such projections, by 2050 Government expenditure will exceed revenue by 3%. Healthcare and pensions will cost us an extra $60 billion a year.
结果是，财政差距将会越来越大。按照这样的预计，到2050年政府开支将会超过收入的3%。政府将会每年花额外600亿澳元用于医疗和养老金。

Australia’s population will grow. But whether we are able to meet the challenges of population ageing will depend on the age composition of our population and the proportion in the workforce.
澳大利亚的人口将会增长。但是我们是否能够对付人口老龄化所带来的挑战取决于我们的人口组成和就业人数的比例。

The Opposition has copped flak for suggesting that if it won Government it would cut immigration – while it has pursued policies it claims would boost the birth rate, such as paid parental leave.
反对党提出如果赢得大选将会减少移民，他们因此倍受批评，同时反对党也推行一些他们认为会使出生率增长的政策，比如带薪产假。

Our immigration program boosts our productivity and workforce participation rate. But immigration doesn’t substantially change the age composition of the population. In other words, migrants get old as well.
我们的移民项目使得我们的生产力和劳动力参与率增长。但是移民不会对人口的年龄组成带来重大改变。换句话说，移民也会变老。

It is changes in the fertility rate – not in migration levels – that will substantially alter the age composition of our population. Australia’s birth rate stands at 1.97 babies per woman.
生育率的变化——而不是移民率——将会重大地改变我们人口的组成。澳大利亚出生率现在是每名女性1.97个孩子。

Additionally, we can expect scientists to make big advances in fighting disease in the coming decades, meaning we will all live longer. However we can’t ignore the reality of population ageing and the fiscal challenges it will bring.
除此以外，我们可以预测在未来几十年中，科学家在对抗疾病方面会有很大的进步，这意味着我们都更加长寿。但是我们不可以忽略人口老龄化的现实，及其带来的财政挑战。

We can’t become complacent, either, about the possibility our baby boom could end. Look at Canada and much of Europe – their low birth rates are totally unsustainable.
我们也不能因为婴儿潮有可能会结束而感到自满。你看加拿大和欧洲的大部分地方，他们那的低出生率是完全不可持续发展的。

So what can we learn from this debate? Well, we should keep in mind that there are good reasons to keep migration levels relatively high. We simply don’t have a big enough workforce to meet demand from employers.
那么，我们能从这个辩论学到什么呢？我们应该注意的是，保持较高的移民率是有理由的。我们的劳动力不足，这将满足不了雇主的需求。

That being said, we can’t expect immigration to solve our future fiscal problems. Only high fertility can slow the inevitable ageing of our population.
尽管这么说，但是我们不能期待用移民来解决我们未来的财政问题。只有高生育率才能使我们不可避免的人口老龄化变慢。

Like it or not, population ageing is a reality. If we are to have a more mature debate, politicians and policymakers must recognise this.
不管你承不承认，人口老龄化是一个现实。如果我们要一个更为合理的辩论的话，政治家和政策制定者必须承认这个事实。

Material adapted from Jessica Brown’s speech on Australia’s ageing population problem.